May 29, 2025
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This month’s briefing kicks off with a game-changer from Washington: on May 28, a federal court ruled Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs—some as high as 145 percent—unlawful, ordering their bureaucratic unwinding within ten days while leaving sector-specific duties on steel, aluminum and autos intact. We then unpack the fallout from that fragile reprieve, Mexico’s hard-won 15 percent cap on auto levies (for non-regional content), and why investors still poured a record US $21.4 billion into Mexican factories, logistics assets and fintech in Q1. Plus: cargo-theft hotspots, tech under fire, and why Mexico’s “quiet discount” and a “second-wave” nearshoring opportunity that could unlock North America’s next competitive edge. Enjoy the deep dive!
On May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs—pegged as high as 145 percent on Chinese imports and similar levies on goods from nearly every other country—exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The panel gave the administration up to ten days to complete the bureaucratic process of ending these duties, but did not specify exactly when collections would cease. Notably, the decision leaves intact the 25 percent Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos, as well as threatened levies on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and other strategic products. The White House has already appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.
Global markets ticked up after judges blocked Trump’s across-the-board levies—including the threatened 50 percent EU tariff—but relief remains fragile. Sector-specific duties on steel, aluminum and autos stay in force, and looming pharma tariffs have not been barred. Economists warn the administration could swiftly replace the blocked levies with up to 15 percent tariffs for 150 days using another trade rule, launch new investigations to justify fresh duties, or press on through appeals—even to the Supreme Court. Trading partners from Australia to Brussels are studying the ruling warily, braced to “plan for the worst and hope for restraint.” As Eswar Prasad of Cornell University observes, “The ruling makes clear that the broad tariffs unilaterally imposed by Trump represent an overreach of executive power.” An added complication: It’s still unclear how yesterday’s court ruling affects these negotiations.
Washington’s 20 May concession trims the planned duty on Mexican-assembled vehicles from 25 % to 15 %. Under USMCA rules, however, that levy applies only to the portion of each car that fails the regional-content test, provided the manufacturer can document the origin mix. Plants that clear the paperwork hurdle will therefore see an immediate 40 % tax break, while models that fall short will continue to pay the full 25 %.
Foreign direct investment hit an all-time quarterly high of US $21.4 billion in Q1 2025 (+5.4 % YoY), with money pouring into factories, logistics assets, and financial services. Investors point to treaty-backed access to the U.S. market, nearshoring momentum, a favourable risk-return profile versus other emerging hubs, improving infrastructure, macro stability, and a growing, youthful workforce with rising female participation.
86 % of Mexico–U.S. trade already crosses the border duty-free; the remaining 14 % carries an average levy of just 13 %. In practical terms, a Puebla-built sedan lands with a 12–13 % duty versus 25 % on a comparable European model. Although April’s light-vehicle exports dipped 10.9 % YoY as plants scrambled to certify content, once the paperwork’s done Mexico’s structural cost edge will endure well into the next USMCA cycle.
Looking beyond autos, Ebrard’s “New North American Economy” framework sees Mexico uniquely poised to capture an expected wave of nearshoring—manufacturers’ drive to reduce reliance on Asia, especially China—by scaling up production in strategic sectors. The U.S. currently imports US $300 billion in pharmaceuticals annually, yet Mexico exports only about US $1 billion; similar gaps exist in electronics and semiconductors. As firms shift supply chains, Mexico can more than double its FDI by expanding its industrial parks (from ~100 today to 300+), adding dedicated development poles with guaranteed water and power, and deepening co-production ties with U.S. partners—all while its “quiet discount” tariff advantage remains firmly in place.
Overhaul’s Q1 data highlight where risk is highest and how it is evolving, rather than indicating broad deterioration. Ten states accounted for 84 % of incidents, with Guanajuato rising to 11 % of the national total—mostly along the Querétaro–León and Querétaro–San Luis Potosí corridors. Food & Drinks (34 %) and Auto & Parts (9 %) were the most targeted categories, and 63 % of events involved trucks in motion, peaking Tuesday–Friday and between 6 p.m. and midnight. Best-practice responses remain clear: daylight scheduling where possible, route planning that avoids recurrent hotspots, and real-time telematics paired with rapid-response protocols.
Marcelo Ebrard says the treaty’s first mandated check-up starts 1 July 2026; Washington will open its own consultations in late September or early October, with Mexico following the same timetable. Weekly working sessions are already under way. Officials on both sides insist the exercise is about fine-tuning, not overhauling: with nearly 90 percent of bilateral trade already duty-free, the aim is to lock in—and, where possible, widen—the regional advantages the pact delivers.
Reinforcing that outlook, BBVA’s chair Carlos Torres has unveiled a record MXN 100 billion (≈ US $5.9 billion), five-year investment plan for the bank’s Mexican franchise. Ebrard welcomed the move as “resources we hadn’t even pencilled in,” arguing that such a commitment from the country’s largest lender underlines international confidence in Mexico’s economic potential and its expanding regional footprint under USMCA.
Apple’s market value has fallen by roughly US $1 trillion since its late-December peak, with shares down 24.6 percent. Now the company faces a new hurdle: on 23 May President Trump warned that every iPhone assembled outside the United States will be hit with a 25 percent import tariff unless production is reshored. In the same breath he delivered an identical threat to Samsung, saying any smartphones still built abroad would incur the same duty. The warning comes even after Tim Cook pledged a US $500 billion investment in the United States over the next four years—money earmarked for projects such as a new factory in Texas, doubling Apple’s Advanced Manufacturing Fund, launching a manufacturing academy, and ramping up AI initiatives. Whether Apple and Samsung accelerate reshoring or pass the cost on to consumers, the smartphone supply chain has become the next focal point in Washington’s tariff campaign.
U.S. Chamber CEO Suzanne P. Clark laid out a five-point plan for turbo-charging the American economy: lock in the 2017 tax cuts, strike new trade deals while rolling back today’s record-size tariffs, streamline federal permits, widen legal-immigration channels, and fast-track energy infrastructure. The common thread is certainty: investors need predictable taxes, open markets, clear timelines for projects, access to talent, and reliable power.
Capital is already following that logic—just across the border. Mexico attracted a record US $21.4 billion in foreign direct investment in Q1, even as domestic spending slowed. Why? Global manufacturers see the same fundamentals Clark highlights: treaty-backed access to the U.S. consumer, a cost-competitive workforce, improving infrastructure, and a demographic dividend that promises labor availability for decades. In other words, the private sector is betting that a more integrated North America will out-compete any single country acting alone.
Put together, Clark’s policy checklist and the investment surge into Mexico point to the same conclusion: dialing down tariff friction and dialing up pro-investment reforms would lock in a regional cost and talent edge that benefits both sides of the border.
Analyst Enrique Quintana sees a narrow window for Mexico to capture a fresh wave of nearshoring driven by renewed U.S.–China tensions and its T-MEC tariff edge. Companies facing 30%+ duties on Chinese imports can unlock duty-free access to the U.S. by relocating production south of the border and meeting rules-of-origin requirements. In 2024, nearshoring-related FDI already made up about 20% of total inflows, with automakers, electronics and medical-tech firms expanding in Nuevo León, Coahuila, Chihuahua and Jalisco.
But a “second act” won’t write itself. To turn this opportunity into lasting growth, Mexico must:
The T-MEC “quiet discount” is powerful today, but only swift public-private action can keep that door open—and cement Mexico’s role at the heart of North America’s next-generation supply chains.
Tanteo ships handcrafted tequila from Jalisco to its hub in Newport, TN. As volumes climbed, the border became a black box—no status until days later, customs holds triggered stock-out risk, and freight costs kept edging up.
Partnering with Nuvocargo, Tanteo switched to NuvoOS for live tracking at six border events, tapped a vetted 20 000-truck network, and gained 24 / 7 support from cross-border specialists. Automated milestone alerts replaced ad-hoc calls, while monthly business reviews began benchmarking cost, speed, and accuracy.
Results.
“With Nuvocargo, it’s smooth and seamless from beginning to end. If anything pops up, I hear it first—100 % transparency,”
Kevin Aznar, Supply Chain Manager, Tanteo Tequila
