May 20, 2025
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When President Trump returned to office in January, many businesses hoped for an unabashedly pro-growth agenda. Instead, his first 100 days have been defined by market volatility, escalating tariffs, and general economic uncertainty.
Under Trump’s protectionist push, the S&P 500 has fallen nearly 8%, the sharpest first-quarter drop for any U.S. president in 50 years. His tariffs — the steepest in over a century — have rattled supply chains, squeezed margins, and raised the odds of a recession both in the U.S. and its key trade partners.
As Trump commemorates his 100th day with a rally in Michigan — and eyes potential relief on auto tariffs — business leaders, investors, and governments are left grappling with a new normal: uncertainty as a constant feature of North American commerce.
In this special edition of Nuvocargo’s Market Update, we trace how President Trump’s first 100 days have already reshaped the U.S.–Mexico trade dynamic — from tariffs and recession risks to new resilience strategies, investment bets, and where opportunities still exist amid the volatility. We conclude that despite all the noise, North America as an economic block continues to stand strong, with different leaders and companies across all three countries doubling down on integrated supply chains.
Mexican exports in March surged 9.6% year-over-year to $55.5 billion, marking the highest monthly value on record—even amid rising U.S. tariffs. Employment also grew: the number of people employed rose by over 500,000 from February. And despite fears, Mexico maintained a trade surplus of $3.4 billion.
The explanation? Robust, highly integrated supply chains are harder to disrupt than anticipated. Some exporters likely accelerated shipments to get ahead of April’s tariff hikes. Still, the resilience in key sectors points to underlying strengths.
As volatile as the environment remains, March’s numbers are better than expected. No guarantees for what’s ahead, but for now, the worst-case scenarios have not materialized.
Mexico remained the United States' No. 1 trade partner in February 2025, with two-way commerce totaling $68.4 billion—a 2% year-over-year increase, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Canada followed with $63.2 billion, while China fell to third place with $42.1 billion, a 4% annual decline.
Laredo, Texas, continued to play a critical role as the No. 3 U.S. trade gateway, handling $27.8 billion in goods—up 1% year-over-year. Top Mexican exports to the U.S. through Laredo included auto parts ($2 billion), computers ($1.37 billion), and passenger vehicles ($1.22 billion).
Despite tariff concerns, cross-border freight volumes show resilience. Trucking demand in Laredo is higher than the same period in 2024, though still below 2022 and 2023 levels. Overall, the data reinforces Mexico’s strategic importance within North America’s supply chain network.
Defying expectations, Mexican exports surged 9.6% year-over-year in March 2025, reaching $55.5 billion USD—the highest monthly export value on record. The country also posted a $3.4 billion trade surplus, despite the backdrop of mounting U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and non-USMCA-compliant goods.
Manufactured exports led the way at $49.9 billion, driven by standout growth in machinery for specialized industries (+50.2%), mining products (+31.9%), and automotive exports (+6.2%). While some of this momentum may reflect front-loading ahead of April tariff hikes, analysts highlight the resilience of North America’s supply chains and the limited availability of substitutes for many Mexican goods.
March’s numbers also show a 2.96% monthly increase in seasonally adjusted exports, despite lower prices for oil and a drop in agricultural shipments like strawberries, tomatoes, and cucumbers. So far, the data suggests that U.S. tariffs haven’t derailed trade—yet.
Nuvocargo has acquired South Carolina-based Merge Transportation, strengthening its offering to include intra-U.S. freight solutions alongside its cross-border and Mexico–Canada capabilities. The move marks a key step toward building a truly integrated platform for North American logistics.
The acquisition also supports Nuvocargo’s broader mission—outlined in its recent company update—to create the operating system for modern trade across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, powered by technology like NuvoOS. By expanding services and deepening AI-driven innovation, Nuvocargo is positioning itself at the forefront of North America’s logistics transformation.
Even amid global tariff volatility, the company continues to bet on resilience, nearshoring momentum, and the growing demand for smarter, integrated supply chain solutions.
President Trump signed an executive order easing aspects of the auto tariff regime. While the 25% tariff on imported vehicles stays in place, new auto parts tariffs—also at 25%—will begin May 3. However, U.S. carmakers importing parts will be eligible for limited reimbursements: 3.75% of the value of domestically assembled cars in year one, dropping to 2.5% in year two, and then eliminated.
Additionally, vehicles composed of at least 85% USMCA-compliant and domestically produced parts will be fully exempt from the tariffs. Automakers will also be charged only the highest applicable tariff per item, avoiding cumulative duties on components like steel and aluminum.
The announcement followed pressure from auto executives, who warned of supply chain disruptions and price hikes. While the order offers some relief, industry leaders remain cautious, with General Motors pulling its profit guidance for 2025 and warning of “significant” future tariff impacts.
The global economic mood has shifted dramatically. A Reuters survey of over 300 economists conducted between April 1 and 28 found that 92% believe U.S. tariffs will negatively impact business confidence, with none seeing a positive effect. The findings point to growing alarm over the broader consequences of President Trump’s trade strategy.
The numbers reflect that concern: 75% of economists cut their 2025 global growth forecasts, with the average now at 2.7%, down from 3.0% in January. Revised projections for Mexico (0.2%) and Canada (1.2%) show some of the sharpest downgrades. Meanwhile, 60% of respondents said the risk of a global recession this year is “high” or “very high.” Many central banks, now facing renewed inflationary pressure from tariffs, may struggle to hit their inflation targets this year.
As tariffs reshape the global trade landscape, a critical reality check is emerging: making America a manufacturing powerhouse again is far more complicated than simply taxing imports. Structural barriers remain deeply entrenched.
One of the most pressing issues is workforce availability. U.S. manufacturing wages are already more than double those in China and nearly six times higher than in Vietnam—and yet, despite higher pay, many American factories still struggle to find enough skilled workers. Labor shortages are a persistent drag, and automation is no silver bullet. The U.S. lags significantly behind global peers in industrial robot density, with just 295 robots per 10,000 workers, compared to 470 in China and over 1,000 in South Korea, according to the International Federation of Robotics. Simply reshoring production without addressing this gap risks pushing up costs and slowing output.
Building new production capacity is another hurdle. Construction productivity in the U.S. has fallen about 40% from its peak in the 1960s, slowed by regulatory hurdles, labor shortages, and aging infrastructure. Today, more than half of U.S. factories are over 30 years old, and bottlenecks in energy grids, bridges, and transport logistics continue to limit manufacturing expansion.
Rather than easing these structural constraints, some experts warn that aggressive tariff policies could exacerbate them—raising input costs, deepening supply chain complexities, and adding pressure on industries that already depend on global networks for competitiveness.
The broader takeaway? A future-ready manufacturing sector won't emerge solely through protectionism. America's competitive edge will depend on investing in modern infrastructure, workforce skills, automation, and innovation ecosystems—not merely on higher import barriers.
Despite escalating rhetoric and scheduled tariff rollouts, recent developments suggest President Trump’s trade agenda may be approaching a pivot point.
On Wall Street and in boardrooms, pressure is building. CEOs from major U.S. companies—including Walmart, Home Depot, and Tesla—are raising alarm bells about supply chain risks, price increases, and the potential for empty shelves. As a result, investors are betting on moderation: the S&P 500 jumped 4.2% in just two days last week following reports that the administration might scale back or delay key measures, including auto tariffs and duties on Chinese goods.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—considered a moderating force—is reportedly pushing against further escalation and for a more calibrated approach, one that avoids undermining consumer sentiment or market stability.
What’s Next?The coming weeks will test which view prevails. While investors may sense a turning point, businesses remain cautious. Until formal policy shifts are signed and announced, the tariff trajectory remains uncertain—but the chorus of dissent is getting harder to ignore.
